Executive Summary
In August 2025, the U.S. freight market endured a typical seasonal rate dip, exacerbated by new trade policies and regulatory changes. While spot rates softened across van and flatbed segments, the landscape remained nuanced, shaped by both excess truck capacity from slumping imports and a tightening driver pool from enforcement of the FMCSA’s English proficiency test. Year-over-year metrics indicate a slow recovery, not a sustained downturn, as the market adapts to macroeconomic and labor shifts.
Key Market Forces
Tariffs & De Minimis Suspension
Sweeping U.S. tariffs effective August 1 raised duties on core commodities, including a universal 50% tariff on copper and increased rates for Canadian imports from 25% to 35%. The suspension of de minimis exemption on August 29 fundamentally changed the calculus for importers, causing U.S. tariff revenues to hit a record $30 billion in August. Shippers “frontloaded” imports in July to avoid these costs, resulting in a 31% month-over-month plunge in international shipment volumes.
Domestic Truck Capacity & English Proficiency
The FMCSA’s late-June English Language Proficiency rule now allows law enforcement to immediately sideline drivers who cannot demonstrate basic English literacy. This further intensifies a long-standing driver shortage, with experienced retirements and lack of new entrants constraining labor supply. As a result, even with tepid demand, driver wages for for-hire carriers are forecasted to rise by 2.7% in 2025, strengthening the value proposition for compliant, reliable carriers.
Year-Over-Year Freight Rate Comparison, August 2024 vs. August 2025
| Trailer Type | Jul ’25 Avg. ($/mile) | Aug ’25 Avg. ($/mile) | % Change M-O-M | Aug ’24 Avg. ($/mile) | % Change Y-O-Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGN | $4.39 | $4.28 | -2.5% | $3.81 | 12.3% |
| Step Deck | $2.65 | $2.58 | -2.6% | $2.58 | 0.0% |
| Flatbed | $2.75 | $2.69 | -2.2% | $2.63 | 2.3% |
| Reefer | $2.54 | $2.53 | -0.4% | $2.52 | 0.4% |
| Van | $2.33 | $2.26 | -3.0% | $2.21 | 2.3% |
| Conestoga | $2.60 | $2.72 | 4.6% | $3.07 | -11.4% |
Dry van and flatbed rates declined modestly versus July but improved compared with August 2024. Reefer rates remained stable due to consistent perishable demand, and shorter average lengths of haul reflect more regional produce shipments. Conestoga (tarped flatbed) rates showed a month-over-month spike as tariff-driven demand for protected transport of steel, aluminum, and copper surged, despite overall slack capacity.
Broker Margins & Market Health
Despite softer rates, van broker margins ticked up from 13.8% in July to 14.1% in August due to steady spreads and stable demand for high-quality, compliant carriers. The spot market, far from collapse, remains delicately balanced, positioning those who can adapt for success in a more capacity-constrained future.
Strategic Implications
Freight Brokers
- Capacity Sourcing: Focus on strong relationships with vetted carrier partners, prioritizing compliance and reliability over lowest rates.
- Quality Over Quantity: Offer assets like predictable routes and fair compensation to attract carriers focused on home time and work environment, not just incentives.
Motor Carriers
- Invest in Compliance: Ensure drivers meet regulatory standards to avoid costly disruptions and unlock premium opportunities as reliable capacity.
- Position as Value-Add Partners: Emphasize safety, retention, and compliance to win high-value, stable freight in a tightening market.
Outlook: Setting the Stage for Q4
With opposing pressures from global trade shifts and ongoing labor shortages, future rate stability will hinge on capacity management and regulatory adaptation. The foundation is set for potential rate recovery as the market absorbs reduced international volumes and continues to contend with supply-side constraints. Prepared brokers and carriers who invest in compliance and strategic relationships will be best placed to thrive as the market evolves.
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