The Circle Dispatch: September 2025 Freight Market Trends & Q4 Outlook
By Circle Logistics | October 2025 • ~5-minute read
Executive Summary
September 2025 marks a significant shift in the freight market, moving from an artificially stable environment to an inflection point that will shape the year-end peak shipping season. The month looked calm on the surface—van/reefer rates barely moved, flatbed slipped by a cent—but tightening brokerage margins and a sharp rebound in cross-border shipments signal a delicate transition into Q4. Expect increased volatility and new challenges for shippers and carriers through peak.
Key Rate and Margin Movements
Subtle price movement with meaningful margin compression:
- Van & reefer rates up by a cent; flatbed down a cent.
- Brokerage margins compressed: van 14.1% | 13.2%; reefer 13.1% | 12.3%.
- Truck acquisition costs rose, signaling capacity rationalization and tighter competition for equipment.
Market Dynamics: The Big Squeeze
- Excess 2023/soft-2024 capacity is finally draining as smaller carriers exit.
- Leverage is shifting from shippers to carriers; rock-bottom pricing is fading.
- Shippers must compete harder for trucks while carrier pay trends up.
Cross-Border Volatility & Inventory Strategies
- Cross-border shipments rebounded 14.6% in September after a 31% August drop.
- Retailers ran lean summer inventories; measured replenishment is underway for Q4.
- Inflation, tariff risk, and Fed policy sustain a “wait-and-see” posture; some imports were front-loaded earlier in 2025.
Holiday Season Outlook for 2025
- Tightening capacity points to a potentially volatile peak.
- Parcel volumes ~+5% YoY; pressure stems from speed, flexibility, and mobile commerce expectations.
- Without carrier partnerships, shippers risk spot-rate spikes and agility gaps.
Recommendations for Circle Logistics Customers
Flexibility
Diversify carrier partners; keep optionality for last-minute pivots.
Communication
Proactive updates with partners reduce spot exposure and protect service.
Strategic Partnerships
Lean on carriers who flex to variable demand and share real-time visibility.
Data-Driven Decisions
Use reporting/analytics to guide Q4 rate talks and inventory positioning.
Conclusion
The “cheap capacity” era is ending. Winning the holidays requires agility, communication, and deeper partnerships. Circle is committed to helping shippers navigate Q4 with insight-driven solutions and dedicated support.
About Circle Logistics
Circle Logistics is a technology-forward freight brokerage and logistics provider specializing in full truckload, flatbed, reefer, and specialized equipment freight. Powered by proprietary technology and a culture of high performance, Circle delivers real-time insight, national reach, and personalized logistics solutions.
