Freight Market Intelligence
May Confirmed It:
Capacity, Not Demand, Is Setting the Price
“May settled the debate. This is not a demand boom, it is a capacity shortage. When brokers lose money on roughly one in nine loads simply to cover freight, the market is telling shippers that scarce trucks, not surging volume, are setting the price.”
By Circle Logistics • Published June 2026 • ~5-minute read
Executive Summary
Every freight cycle has a month that stops being a story about momentum and becomes a story about the new baseline. In 2026, May was that month. Spot truckload rates rose across nearly every trailer type, and the move was driven far more by reduced capacity than by any surge in demand. Shippers know higher rates are coming and are working to force competition between brokers to hold pricing in check, yet trucks were hard enough to find that roughly one in every nine brokered loads finished at a loss, about 11 percent of total volume. Year-over-year rate growth that sat near 30 percent a month ago is now the floor of the range rather than the ceiling. Dry van rates moved north of $3.00 per mile, up from the $2.00 to $2.30 range not long ago, while step deck rates climbed a sharp 8.9 percent month over month and flatbed added 3.0 percent.
The latest edition of The Circle Dispatch breaks down what drove May’s capacity-led repricing, what a 30 percent year-over-year floor means for summer contract renewals, and where shippers should focus now.
Key Findings
Capacity, not demand, set the pace
The defining dynamic of May was a widening gap between available freight and available trucks. Rate floors rose even where demand was steady rather than spiking.
Thirty percent year-over-year is now the floor
Shippers who locked in contracts in early 2025 are reaching renewal windows in a market that has repriced by roughly 25 to 52 percent depending on equipment type.
Brokers absorbed the squeeze
Temperature-controlled capacity was largely insulated through Q1 2026 as the rate surge was concentrated in flatbed and specialized equipment.
Broker Margins Are Compressing at the Top
About 13 percent of reefer loads ran at a loss as summer demand outpaced capacity, and brokers paid up to hold market share. Step deck was the exception, posting higher rates and improved margins at the same time.
The Forces Behind the Numbers
Capacity contraction set the pace, and even flat demand kept upward pressure on rates as long as trucks stayed scarce. Fuel added to the squeeze: a rapid diesel run-up left surcharges trailing pump prices by roughly 10 days, though brokers stayed better insulated through adjustable surcharges billed to the shipper. LTL was the margin standout at 39 percent, and hot shot rates can now rival full truckload, reinforcing the case for a firm market heading into a freight-heavy June.
Download the Full May 2026 Report
Explore rate breakdowns by equipment type, quarterly comparisons, and outlook insights in our latest white paper: The Circle Dispatch: May 2026 Freight Market Report
About Circle Logistics
Circle Logistics is a technology-forward freight brokerage specializing in truckload, reefer, flatbed, and specialized equipment freight.
Powered by real-time market data and a performance-driven culture, Circle helps shippers and carriers navigate volatility with confidence.